The Solana price is down about 12% over the past 30 days. As 2026 approaches, the chart shows a mix of bullish and bearish signals.
Some indicators suggest a bounce in January, but others indicate that pressure could persist if momentum fails to materialize.
History Leans Bullish, But ETF Flows And Expert Views Split
January has been a strong month for Solana. The average return sits near 59%, with median gains around 22%. The pattern sharpens when December ends red.
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In 2022, SOL fell 29.6% in December, and in January 2023, SOL rallied 140%. In December 2024, SOL dropped 20.5%, and in January 2025, it rose 22.3%. This month is down 6.94% so far, which statistically leans toward a rebound.
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ETF data backs that idea. Since launch, Solana spot ETFs have not posted a single week of net outflows. The most recent week added $13.14 million (incomplete week still), bringing cumulative inflows to $755.77 million.
That steady demand signals selective confidence in SOL at a time when other majors face withdrawals.
B2BinPay’s analytics team describes what that flow pattern means for Solana and the broader market, in their conversation with BeInCrypto:
“Investors aren’t rotating wholesale out of Bitcoin and Ethereum into the altcoin market. They prioritize a small group of liquid, well-known tokens where downside feels controllable, and positions can be closed quickly if needed.
That’s why only a few altcoins such as Solana or XRP are seeing inflows, while most of the market is quiet. Current inflows into Solana shouldn’t be read as the start of the altseason. These moves are narrow and especially selective,” they said.
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This supports SOL’s ETF inflows, but it also warns not to frame the move as a broad altseason setup.
Chart Signals Hint At Reversal, But EMAs And Derivatives Show Resistance
On the two-day chart, the SOL price made a lower low between November 21 and December 17, while the RSI (Relative Strength Index, a momentum gauge showing overbought/oversold strength) made a higher low. That is a bullish divergence and can indicate early trend reversal if buyers follow through.
But a bearish condition sits right beside it.
On the same timeframe, the 100-period EMA (Exponential Moving Average, a trend-tracking line that reacts faster to price) is on the verge of crossing below the 200-period EMA.
If that bearish crossover confirms, downside pressure could continue into late December or early January before any recovery can stick. Until that crossover is avoided or reversed, the technical picture stays split.
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Derivatives positioning shows more caution. On Hyperliquid, almost every trader bracket has net short positioning across the last seven days.
Top 100 addresses, smart money, and Solana whale accounts are all net short. Yet, some groups (smart money, public figures, and perp winners) are slowly opening longs. That could be in anticipation of a bullish January 2026, as highlighted earlier.
This mix leaves the setup balanced. Momentum suggests a reversal could be forming. EMAs and derivatives positioning argue for patience. If Solana wants to build a January rally, it needs to flip that derivative sentiment away from shorts while avoiding the EMA cross.
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Key Solana Price Levels: $129 Is The Pivot, $116 Is The Fail-Safe
SOL trades near $124. A two-day close above $129 would confirm strength and open a path toward $150. Clearing $150 could then target $171 if ETF inflows hold and RSI momentum continues to build.
Cost-basis heat map data explains why $129 matters. One of the strongest supply clusters sits between $123 and $124, and SOL is currently fighting through it.
A close above $129 clears that cluster and removes immediate overhead resistance. Above that, supply thins until $165 to $167, improving the odds of continuation if volume arrives.
A cost-basis heat map tracks where large groups of holders acquired their tokens, which highlights zones where supply or demand may cluster.
On the downside, $116 stays the fail-safe. Losing that level breaks the historical “red December, green January” trend and sets up continuation of the downtrend. A confirmed bearish EMA crossover, accompanied by a break below $116, would reset expectations for the month.
For now, the trade is defined by two thresholds. Above $129, bullish momentum allows room to move toward $150 and $171. Below $116, buyers lose control, and January’s usual strength may not show up.
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